针对特高含水期水驱油井压裂对象不断变差，压裂选井、选层难度不断加大等问题，从油藏工程角度和矿场实际出发，综合运用复相关及灰色关联方法进行了主要影响因素的筛选，分析了压裂层段有效厚度、压裂层段渗透率、压裂层段地层系数与全井地层系数比值、压裂前全井含水、压裂前全井日产液、压裂前压差等6 项压裂效果的主要影响因素。运用数据组合处理方法（GMDH）建立了压裂增油量与主要影响因素之间的回归模型，运用经济学的投入、产出原理建立了压裂增油量经济界限模型，明确了压裂增油是否经济有效与压裂井投入及相应成本变化之间的关系。研究中所运用的方法及建立的压裂增油量预测模型和经济界限模型，对特高含水期水驱油井压裂潜力的研究具有一定的参考价值。

Along with the oilfield entering into extra high water cut stage，the fracturing objects of water driving oil wells are becoming poor，and also the selection of fracturing wells and layers is more and more difficult. Based on reservoir engineering and real oilfield situation，we selected and analyzed the main influencing factors of fracturing effects by using multiple correlation and grey association methods, including effective thickness of the fracturing layers，permeability of the fracturing layers，ratio of formation coefficient of the fracturing layers to formation coefficient of the whole well，water cut of the whole oil well before fracturing， fluid quantity per day of the whole oil well before fracturing and pressure difference before fracturing. We used the group method of data handling （GMDH）to establish the regression model between the fracturing oil production enhancement and the main influencing factors, used the input-output principle of economics to establish the economic limit model of fracturing oil production enhancement，and defined that whether the fracturing oil production enhancement is economic or not is related to fracturing inputs and corresponding change of cost.