底水锥进是影响底水油藏开发效果的重要因素。综合考虑各种影响因素，基于详细理论研究与分 析，利用某油藏生产数据建立了底水油藏的数值模型，并应用数值模拟结果中的累积产油、产水和产液量 计算俞启泰水驱特征变化曲线，得出反映直井含水变化规律的参数b 值。确定b 值为响应值，运用响应 曲面实验设计分析方法研究不同因素对b 值的影响，最后建立主要影响因素与b 值的关系式，结合俞启 泰曲线b 值图版，得到了预测底水油藏直井含水变化规律的回归曲线-图版法。应用此图版法对海上某 油田H12 井含水率进行了预测，并与实际生产数据对比，认为此方法可作为预测底水油藏直井含水率变 化规律的一种有效方法。

Bottom water coning is an important factor affecting reservoir development effect. Based on the theoretical investigation, numerical model of bottomwater reservoir is established. The accumulate oil production, water production and fluid production rate fromthe numerical simulation result were applied to calculate Yu Qitai water drive characteristic curve, and parameter b which can reflect water cut change in vertical wells was obtained. We used the response surface experimental design analysis method to study the effect of different factors on b value, and established the relation formula between the main influencing factor and b value. According toYu Qitai curve b chart, the regression curve and chart method for forecasting water cut change rule of vertical wells in bottom water reservoir was obtained. This chart
method was used in H12 well in an oilfield, the results prove the veracity. So this method is effective for forecasting water cut change rule of vertical wells in bottom water reservoir.