针对牛圈湖区块西山窑组油藏含水上升过快已严重制约油田稳产的问题，通过相渗曲线法、模型预 测法、图版法和水驱特征曲线法分区进行含水上升规律研究，得出了各区块含水率随采出程度的变化规律 及含水率预测模型，并分别与实际含水上升规律进行了对比与分析，优选出了适合各区块的含水率预测方 法。 分析了单井的含水上升规律，并依据见水井含水变化特征，划分出 5 种含水上升类型，剖析了不同含 水上升类型的开发特征及产生机理，并提出了相应的治理技术对策，为牛圈湖区块有效开发提供了依据。

Too rapid rising of water cut in Niuquanhu block has seriously restricted the stable oil production. Based on relative permeability curves, model prediction, plate method, water drive curve method, this paper studied water cut rising rule, obtained the recovery of each block changes with water cut and the water cut forecasting model, and
compared with the actual water cut rising, finally optimized suitable method for the prediction of water cut in each block. The water cut rising rule of single well was analyzed. According to water cut change characteristics, we divided water cut rising into 5 types, analyzed the development features and formation mechanism of each type of water cur rising, and proposed corresponding technical countermeasures, which provides references for the effective development in Niuquanhu block.