Lithologic Reservoirs ›› 2009, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 108-110.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-8926.2009.03.023

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Application of Logistic model based on grey system modeling in oil-gas field development

WEN Hua1， SUN Na2， TIAN Huafeng3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Enhanced Oil Recovery， Ministry of Education， Daqing Petroleum Institute， Daqing 163318， China； 2. Songyuan Gas Production Plant， Jilin Oilfield Company， PetroChina， Songyuan 138000， China； 3. Petroleum Engineering Technology Institute， Zhongyuan Oilfield Branch， Sinopec， Puyang 457001， China
  • Online:2009-09-16 Published:2009-09-16

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Abstract:

The accurate forecasting of oil-gas field output is very important to the oil-gas field development. But the oil gas field development is an extremely complex non-linearity successional process. Based on the growth rule of the natural biology, the Logistic forecast model for forecasting oil-gas field output is established, and the Logistic model parameters are estimated by grey systemmodeling. The application practice indicates that the Logistic model based on grey systemmodeling has higher forecast precision than regression parameter estimation method, and has better forecast effect.

Key words: orthogonal test, deliverability parameter, optimize design, effect weight

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