油气田开发

基于灰色建模法的Logistic 模型在油气田开发中的应用

  • 李华 ,
  • 刘双琪 ,
  • 朱绍鹏
展开
  • 1.大庆石油学院提高油气采收率教育部重点实验室; 2.中国石油吉林油田分公司松原采气厂; 3.中国石化中原油田采油工程技术研究院
文华,男,1980 年生,助教,硕士,主要从事油藏描述及油气田开发方面的研究工作。地址:(163318)黑龙江省大庆石油学院石 油工程学院。E-mail:wenhuazhg@126.com

网络出版日期: 2009-09-16

基金资助

黑龙江省科技攻关项目(编号:GZ05A301)资助

Application of Logistic model based on grey system modeling in oil-gas field development

  • LI Hua ,
  • LIU Shuangqi ,
  • ZHU Shaopeng
Expand
  • 1. Key Laboratory of Enhanced Oil Recovery, Ministry of Education, Daqing Petroleum Institute, Daqing 163318, China; 2. Songyuan Gas Production Plant, Jilin Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Songyuan 138000, China; 3. Petroleum Engineering Technology Institute, Zhongyuan Oilfield Branch, Sinopec, Puyang 457001, China

Online published: 2009-09-16

摘要

准确预测油气田产量对油气田的科学开发决策至关重要,而油气田的开发是一个非常复杂的非线性演变过程。基于自然界生物生长的增长规律,建立起预测油气田产量的Logistic 模型,再利用灰色建模法对Logistic 模型中的参数进行估计。实例表明,基于灰色建模法的Logistic 模型预测精度较回归辨识方法高,预测效果较好。

本文引用格式

李华 , 刘双琪 , 朱绍鹏 . 基于灰色建模法的Logistic 模型在油气田开发中的应用[J]. 岩性油气藏, 2009 , 21(3) : 108 -110 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-8926.2009.03.023

Abstract

The accurate forecasting of oil-gas field output is very important to the oil-gas field development. But the oil gas field development is an extremely complex non-linearity successional process. Based on the growth rule of the natural biology, the Logistic forecast model for forecasting oil-gas field output is established, and the Logistic model parameters are estimated by grey systemmodeling. The application practice indicates that the Logistic model based on grey systemmodeling has higher forecast precision than regression parameter estimation method, and has better forecast effect.

参考文献

[1] 李祖友,朱义东,唐坚,等.广义S 增长曲线预测油田含水率[J].新疆石油地质,2006,27(1):62-63.
[2] 李祖友,朱义东,李玉林,等.广义S 增长曲线在油田开发中的应用[J].特种油气藏,2005,12(6):53-54.
[3] 陈元千,胡建国,张栋杰. Logistic 模型的推导及自回归方法[J].新疆石油地质,1996,17(2):150-154.
[4] 张家良,余元洲,邢卫东,等. Logistic 模型的改进及在油藏可采储量预测中的应用[J].油气地质与采收率,2006,13(3):56-57.
[5] 周志军,秦国伟.逻辑斯谛模型在预测油气田可采储量中的应用[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2006,25(3):52-53.
[6] 赵俊平,梁若冰,尹丽娟.三种油气田可采储量预测方法的对比分析[J].大庆石油学院学报,2007,31(6):65-67.
[7] 赖枫鹏,李治平. Logistic 产量预测新模型及应用[J].油气井测试,2007,16(6):7-8.
[8] 陈元千.对预测含水率的翁氏模型推导[J].新疆石油地质,1998,19(5):403-407.
[9] 胡亦郑,黄庆棉,罗勇.Logistic 模型的预测应用两例[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(16):138-141.
[10] 陈元千.油气藏工程实用方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1999,35-45.
文章导航

/