水合物的生成给天然气的开采、集输等过程带来很多困难，预测模型的建立是水合物防治急需解决的难题。该文阐述了4 种常用预测方法的优缺点，并利用统计热力学原理建立天然气水合物预测模型，分析影响天然气水合物生成的5 种主要因素：气体组成、温度和压力、离子浓度、酸性气体、抑制剂加入。以罗家寨气藏为应用实例，其预测值与实验结果相吻合。水合物预测模型的建立对水合物防治，指导天然气生产，具有积极的意义。

The generation of hydrate has brought a lot of difficulties in processes such as gas extraction, gas gathering and so on. The establishment of forecasting model is a puzzle in hydrate prevention and cure. The advantages and disadvantages of four commonly used forecasting model are summarized. The statistical thermodynamics principle is used to establish gas hydrate forecasting model, and five main factors that affect gas hydrate formation are analyzed, including the gas composition, temperature and pressure, ion concentration, acidic gas and inhibitor added. This forecasting model is applied in Luojiazhai gas reservoir, and the result shows that the predictive values are consistent with the experimental results. The establishment of gas hydrate forecasting model is significant for hydrate prevention and guiding gas production.