根据气井压后气体渗流规律的变化特征，基于稳定流理论，考虑地层条件下气体的 PVT 参数随压力的变化而变化，再结合气藏的物质平衡方程，推导、建立了考虑非线性渗流特征影响的低渗气藏无限导流垂直裂缝井产能动态预测模型，并分析了非线性渗流特征影响因素和生产因素对气井产量变化规律的影响。 研究结果表明：启动压力梯度和渗透率变形系数越大，气井稳产年限下降幅度越大，开采年限越长，地层压力下降速度越慢，其中渗透率变形系数的影响更大；滑脱因子越大，气井稳产年限增加幅度越大，开采年限越短，地层压力下降速度越快；采气速度越大，气井稳产年限下降幅度越大，开采年限越短，地层压力下降速度越快；井底压力变化对气井产量影响较小。

Based on the steady seepage theory, according to the change characteristics of gas seepage rule after fracturing, considering the gas PVT parameters change with formation pressure, and combining with material balance equation, this paper derived and established a dynamic productivity prediction model for infinite conductivity vertically fractured wells in low permeability reservoir with non-linear seepage, and analyzed the effect of non-linear seepage characteristics and production on gas well productivity. The result shows that the greater the start-up pressure gradient and deformation coefficient of permeability are, the more the stable production period decreases, and the longer the production life is, the slower the formation pressure decline. The larger the slippage factor is, the more the stable production period increases, and the shorter the production life is, the faster the formation pressure decline. The greater the gas production rate is, the more the stable production period decreases, and the shorter the production life is, the faster the formation pressure decline. The bottom hole pressure has less effect on the variation law of the gas well productivity.