针对油田在进入特高含水期以后的开发特点，在研究了各种开发指标预测方法的基础上，从广泛 运用的水驱特征曲线出发，结合特高含水期液油比变化敏感的特征，建立了基于液油比的预测模型，并 在此基础上推导了液油比与含水率、含水上升速度的关系以及液油比与产量递减率的关系。研究表明： 随着累积产液量的增长，含水上升速度减缓；产液量增长率等于液油比增长率时，产油量保持稳定。经 验证基于液油比的预测模型预测精度较高，是对已有特高含水期开发指标预测方法系列的有效补充，具 有一定的实用性。

Aiming at the development characteristics in extra-high water cut stage, based on the research of several forecastingmethods of development index, according to the change characteristics of liquid/oil ratio in extra-high water cut stage, this paper established a forecasting model based on liquid-oil ratio, and deducted the relationship between liquid/oil ratio and water cut and the relationship between liquid/oil ratio and decline rate. The result shows that with the accumulated liquid production rising, the ascending velocity of water cut is slowdown, and when the growth rate of liquid production and liquid/oil ratio is equal, the oil production is stable. This forecasting model proves high prediction accuracy, and it is practical for oilfield development index in extra-high water cut stage.