Lithologic Reservoirs ›› 2012, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 80-83.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-8926.2012.01.015

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Uncertainty analysis of fluvial reservoir in oilfield early development period based on stochastic modeling: A case study from A oilfield in Bohai Bay

XUE Yanxia， LIAO Xinwu， ZHAO Chunming， HUO Chunliang， ZHANG Rucai   

  1. Research Institute of Exploration and Development， Tianjin Branch， CNOOC， Tianjin 300452， China
  • Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-02-20

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Abstract:

Taking A oilfield in Bohai Bay as an example, this paper introduced a method of evaluating reservoir risk that combines Monte-Carlo method with stochastic modeling, aiming at the problem of uncertainty analysis of geological model in china and the characteristics of fluvial reservoir in Bohai Bay. The reason that the uncertainty parameters exist in geological model was analyzed. Based on stochastic reservoir modeling, combined with experimental design, multinomial response surface of the main uncertainty factors and reserves and Monte-Carlo method, the effects of uncertainty factors on the reserves were estimated quantitatively and the risk and potential of the reservoir were predicted, which provides a set of optimum geological models for numerical reservoir simulation.

Key words: carbonate rocks, reservoir characteristics, southern Qilian Basin

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