Lithologic Reservoirs ›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 117-122.doi: 1673-8926（2016）05-0117-06

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Application of modified unbiased grey model to the prediction of oil and gas field production

Huang Quanhua， Fu Yunhui， Lu Yun， Chen Chong， Liu Tong   

  1. （School of Oil & Natural Gas Engineering， Southwest Petroleum University， Chengdu 610500， China）
  • Online:2016-09-29 Published:2016-09-29

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Abstract:

There is no inherent deviation in unbiased grey model which can improve the prediction accuracy to a certain extent. However, if use unbiased grey model directly in the actual application, the predicted results can not meet the requirements of prediction accuracy. The power function method and metabolism method were applied to improve the unbiased grey model, and a modified unbiased grey model was proposed. Based on the data of annual oil production of oilfield, unbiased grey model, power function?unbiased grey model and modified unbiased grey model were established respectively, and then the predicted results by these models were compare with actual oil production. The results show that the modified unbiased grey model has higher prediction accuracy than the other two models. The average relative error is only 5.53%, the small error probability is greater than 0.95, and the mean square deviation ratio is 0.34. The results predicted by the modified unbiased grey model have high fitting degree with actual oil production, so this model can be used to predict oil and gas field production.

Key words: shale gas, reservoir evaluation, gray fuzzy, Longmaxi Formation, Nanchuan area

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