随机森林算法在水力压裂套管变形预测中的应用

doi:10.12108/yxyqc.20250317

岩性油气藏 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 185–193.doi: 10.12108/yxyqc.20250317

• 石油工程与油气田开发 • 上一篇

随机森林算法在水力压裂套管变形预测中的应用

林鹤, 杜金玲, 徐刚, 容娇君, 梁雪莉, 衡峰, 郭俊宁, 马梦茜

中国石油东方地球物理勘探有限责任公司, 河北涿州 072750

收稿日期:2024-06-26 修回日期:2024-08-05 发布日期:2025-05-10
第一作者:林鹤（1988—），女，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事微地震资料综合解释方面的研究工作。地址：（072750）河北省涿州市甲秀路39号科技楼A座。Email：623532940@qq.com。
基金资助:
中国石油东方地球物理勘探有限责任公司科研项目“非常规油气高效勘探开发技术攻关研究”（编号：07-01-2024）资助

The application of random forest algorithm in predicting the casing deformation of hydraulic fracturing

LIN He, DU Jinling, XU Gang, RONG Jiaojun, LIANG Xueli, HENG Feng, GUO Junning, MA Mengxi

BGP INC., China National Petroleum Corporation, Zhuozhou 072750, Hebei, China

Received:2024-06-26 Revised:2024-08-05 Published:2025-05-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以吉木萨尔凹陷二叠系芦草沟组12口套管变形水平井为研究对象，基于三维地震属性数据，分析地质因素诱发的套管变形位置与天然裂缝发育位置及储层岩性和力学特性的非均质变化边界之间的对应关系，并对随机森林算法在水力压裂套管变形预测中的应用进行了详细研究。研究结果表明：①套管变形位置出现在天然裂缝带发育位置和储层非均质性变化的边界位置，且二者之间表现为非线性相关关系；②采用网格搜索和5折交叉验证的方式优选随机森林套管变形风险预测模型中决策树的数量和节点分裂的特征值个数，综合考虑计算精度和效率，选定节点分裂的特征值个数为2，决策树个数为100。③随机森林算法在吉木萨尔凹陷二叠系芦草沟组致密油储层水力压裂套管变形井段位置的预测精度可达87.85%，模型输出的套管变形风险预测结果可为压裂设计优化和施工参数的调整提供指导。

关键词: 机器学习, 随机森林算法, 水力压裂, 套管变形, 芦草沟组, 二叠系, 吉木萨尔凹陷

Abstract: Taking 12 casing-deformed horizontal wells in the Permian Lucaogou Formation of the Jimsar Sag as the research object，based on three-dimension seismic attribute data，a comparative analysis is conducted to examine the correspondence between casing deformation locations induced by geological factors and the development of natural fractures. A risk prediction model for casing deformation locations is established using the Random Forest algorithm from machine learning. The result shows that：（1）Casing deformation occurs primarily at locations where natural fracture zones develop and at boundaries of reservoir heterogeneity，with a nonlinear correlation between the two.（2）The number of decision trees and the number of features for node splitting in the Random Forest casing deformation risk prediction model are optimized using grid search and 5-fold crossvalidation. Considering both computational accuracy and efficiency，the optimal number of features for node splitting is set to 2，and the number of decision trees is set to 100.（3）The application of actual data shows that the Random Forest algorithm achieves a prediction accuracy of 87.85% for casing deformation locations in the tight oil reservoirs of the Permian Lucaogou Formation in the Jimsar Sag. The risk prediction results output by the model can provide guidance for optimizing fracturing designs and adjusting construction parameters.

Key words: machine learning, random forest algorithm, hydraulic fracturing, casing deformation, Lucaogou Formation, Permian, Jimsar Sag

中图分类号:

TE357.1

林鹤, 杜金玲, 徐刚, 容娇君, 梁雪莉, 衡峰, 郭俊宁, 马梦茜. 随机森林算法在水力压裂套管变形预测中的应用[J]. 岩性油气藏, 2025, 37(3): 185–193.

LIN He, DU Jinling, XU Gang, RONG Jiaojun, LIANG Xueli, HENG Feng, GUO Junning, MA Mengxi. The application of random forest algorithm in predicting the casing deformation of hydraulic fracturing[J]. Lithologic Reservoirs, 2025, 37(3): 185–193.

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随机森林算法在水力压裂套管变形预测中的应用

The application of random forest algorithm in predicting the casing deformation of hydraulic fracturing

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